Here's a bold statement: The Bitcoin bottom everyone's waiting for might not be here just yet, and that's causing quite a stir in the crypto world. But here's where it gets controversial... While some analysts claim the worst is behind us, others are digging into the data and painting a different picture. Let’s break it down in a way that even beginners can grasp.
Chain analyst and Alphractal CEO João Wedson recently shared a compelling framework (https://x.com/joao_wedson/status/2018382790371242324?s=46&t=qzsvHvtDB3yjTaoaylh-2g) that challenges the notion of an immediate recovery. According to Wedson, a true Bitcoin bottom unfolds in two distinct phases, and we’ve only completed the first. Phase one? Short-term holders are already underwater, meaning many recent buyers are sitting on losses. This typically triggers stress and forced selling among less committed investors—a classic sign of market strain.
And this is the part most people miss... Wedson argues the real bottom only materializes when long-term holders—those who’ve historically held strong through volatility—also start feeling the heat. Historically, this marks the point of maximum capitulation, where even the most conviction-driven investors question their resolve. So, are we there yet? Not quite.
Other analysts suggest Bitcoin is entering a “bottom discovery phase,” pointing to recent data showing that only 11.1 million BTC are currently profitable, down from 19.8 million at last year’s peak. That’s a staggering 8.7 million coins bought at prices higher than today’s levels, creating the sharpest profit compression Bitcoin has ever seen. In past cycles, this zone has often led to prolonged consolidation periods marked by fear and patience-testing conditions.
To add to the drama, Bitcoin recently dipped into the low $72,000s as U.S. political uncertainty sparked a broader risk-off sentiment across equities, gold, and crypto. While markets rebounded after the government funding bill passed, on-chain data (https://x.com/santimentfeed/status/2018882646378713092?s=46&t=qzsvHvtDB3yjTaoaylh-2g) reveals whales have offloaded over 50,000 BTC in the past two weeks, even as retail investors have been buying the dip. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is up 4.68% in the last 24 hours to $68,527, though its weekly decline still exceeds 19%.
Here’s the million-dollar question... Will institutional flows stabilize, signaling a bottom in formation, or are we in for deeper downside? Analysts are closely monitoring the 200-week EMA near $65,400 for clues. ETF outflows remain a headwind, adding another layer of complexity to the narrative.
So, what do you think? Is the Bitcoin bottom closer than we realize, or are we in for more turbulence? Let’s hear your thoughts in the comments—agree or disagree, the debate is wide open!
